Fall Camp 2023: The NEW South Florida Bulls
What a wild few months
The South Florida Bulls started fall camp this week with Coach Golesh leading the team into its first season in the revamped American Conference.
Of note… the vastly different circumstance the program finds itself. Only a few short months ago USF was the laughing stock of college football. I don’t like to say that - but it is what it is. We had just paid a large buy out to a coach who took USF from off the rails with Charlie Strong to fully off the cliff. Now we find ourselves with the top recruiting class in the conference and are inching towards a top 50 overall class.
(Rivals.com)
USF enters camp with a slew of impact transfers, two extremely capable quarterbacks and a much less challenging schedule. This season could be an exciting one if Golesh and Defensive Coordinator Todd Orlando can get the defense to improve at all from the worst ranked defense in college football last season.
The most refreshing part of the building anticipation for the season is that while this season is important, it will not come with the massive expectations of a struggling coach in his third year promising “this time its going to work…” No, Bulls nation can relax - understand there will be some growing pains - but be excited about what this new staff is brining to the table.
(USF Athletics)
Fall camp will be filled with on field battles, however Coach Golesh has brought the players in for an 11 day stay at a hotel to build off field relationships, maximize focus, and hopefully begin building a winner. While it seems Coach Golesh is favoring returning senior Gerry Bohannon at quarterback, there are no guarantees with redshirt freshman Byrum Brown coming in with spring ball experience and a lot of confidence. Running back will be a position I am looking forward to see play out. Transfer Nay’Quan Wright from Florida appears to many to have the inside track to RB1, but it looks like the room is deep with returners Michael Dukes and Kelly Joiner Jr. among others all looking to fill the shoes of outgoing Auburn transfer Brain Battie. Wide receiver is where USF will really need to find break out performances. Offensive line protection and great QB play can only go so far if guys aren’t getting open. USF badly needs a surprise star on the edge.
But one thing seems to be looming above the team… the program… the conference… and the sport as a whole... Conference realignment was thought to be in a stable period after UCLA and USC moved to the B1G and Oklahoma and Texas had been backfilled in the Big 12 but already the game of thrones is back on. This development is a double edged sword for USF. While we all wanted these plates to shift again, I would have hoped we had some kind of bowl game trophy to show we had returned to competence - even if it was something like the Metamucil Bowl hosted in Wichita Kansas.
Most people thought conference realignment was supposed to have settled for now. The ACC was assumed to be locked into its air tight grant of rights agreement and the PAC12 was thought to be not far from signing its own media deal off the tail of the Big 12’s very sizable TV deal that will have teams making upwards of $50 million dollars a year in the next few seasons. Notre Dame had its own deal and the SEC and B1G seemed like they would bide their time until they could get the schools they wanted. So what happened?
The TV money dried up just before the PAC12 could secure its deal. If you hadn’t noticed, ESPN has been laying off employees left and right while its parent company Disney is having some stock trouble of its own. This led to depleted interest from ESPN for the PAC12 when it already has plenty of college football product for its platform, including the SEC and ACC. Amazon and Apple are looking to get into the game but they aren’t willing to overpay, and it also limits games to streaming services and not traditional linear TV. This, combined with the PAC 12 over valuing itself and turning down offer after offer, led to Colorado deciding it would rather take the $50 mil on offer from the Big12.
Colorado jumps ship and now the PAC 12 has even less media value and schools like Arizona and Utah are now begging for the Big12 to bring them along. The only two power brands left in the PAC 12 in Washington and Oregon have been keeping channels open with the B1G this entire time as they have wanted to join USC and UCLA in what will eventually become one of the two “big leagues” of the sport.
Back on the East coast schools like Florida State and Clemson see themselves trapped in a deal that will leave them 500 million dollars behind Rutgers and Illinois in TV revenue over 10 years, and two leagues not named the ACC becoming the stand alone power leagues of college football. FSU does not seem interested in waiting 10+ years to see what that does to their brand and pecking order within the sport. Per some reports and even university administrators, they appear to have found the lawyering and calculations that will get them out the door early from a grant of rights that was supposed to last until 2036. The ACC finds itself in dangerous territory, and their commissioner knows it. Remember, a lot of this TV money has dried up - there is probably no ESPN check coming to save the ACC.
What happens next?
Well a few things are possible. Nothing is certain. I don’t know who is going where or when, nobody does unless you're smoking cigars with these commissioners. My best guess…
The SEC follows its trend of grabbing flagship universities within its footprint and grabs North Carolina and Virginia. These don’t seem like powerhouses but the SEC model has always worked and I believe it will continue to do so. Let’s not forget both of these schools can win on the court too.
The B1G pushes towards its NFL junior style league and takes Washington, Oregon, Florida State, and Clemson. I could see Georgia Tech and Miami in play but it all depends on how big they want to go, and how much Fox and CBS will pay.
The Big 12 adds Arizona to pair with Colorado. The rest of the PAC 12 wants on this life boat but I could see with the ACC grant of rights showing cracks that if they can get teams like Pitt, Louisville, or even Virginia Tech on discount they may hold out.
What happens to USF?
I think there are three paths for USF. The first and probably the fan favorite is the ACC remains intact, losing only 2 or 4 schools and it backfills with ECU/UCONN, Memphis, USF, and SMU. The league keeps its name and remains a tier 2 conference.
If the ACC gets raided by 3 conferences with TV deals (Big12, B1G, and SEC) and loses half its membership - there will be schools across the country looking for a home. A PAC12 / ACC left overs with AAC top tiers that create a national conference on both coasts that most likely is a tier 3 conference but has great football and academics. Think Cal, Duke, USF, Pitt, Boston College, Stanford, SMU, CSU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Memphis, Oregon State, NC State, UConn. Great schools & great brands but realistically are not on par with the SEC and B1G in terms of college football power (at least the top half of those leagues).
Option 3… we get left behind. I would have said a few months ago this is probable… But a few months ago USF did not have a top 55 recruiting class, was not an AAU university, and did not have a $350 million dollar price tag attached to its upcoming new on campus stadium.
Ladies and gentleman… Welcome to the #NewUSF.
Notes:
Tell your family you love ‘em - but FOOTBALL IS BACK!
